While the world holds its breath

On Friday I took part in a regular panel podcast where, among other things, we discussed the rapidly shifting situation in the Middle East, the fragile ceasefire now in place between the U.S. and Iran, and the peace talks that have begun in Islamabad.

We also touched on the growing gap between those negotiations and some of the statements coming out of the White House. My own position was to question whether this confusion was part of a deliberate strategy – as it clearly was in the first phase of this campaign – or whether Trump was simply now out of his depth. The latter suggestion prompted a strong reaction from Trump supporters whose instinct is to attack anyone who questions Trump’s actions in any way.

To be fair, I have some sympathy for their response – particularly in relation to this matter. Trump was willing to do what most Western leaders were not. He acted on an issue that others have talked about, for decades, but have been unwilling to address. The United States, alongside Israel, took direct military action against a brutal Islamic regime which has imprisoned 90 million Iranians for almost 50 years while other nations – my own included – wrung their cowardly hands and tut-tutted at the actions of the US and Israel rather than showing the support that the situation demands.

Trump’s supporters are also right to be frustrated with a mainstream media which seems to be wholly incapable of giving him credit for anything – and this helps to explain why so many of those supporters have become reflexively defensive whenever criticism of him is raised.

But there is a middle position. You can acknowledge what Trump has done right, while still asking whether what he is doing now makes sense. Because this is not some minor political argument. What happens next affects the future of Iran, the stability of the Middle East, the security of Israel, and fuel prices around the world. As such, scrutiny is not only reasonable – it is essential.

Which brings us to the real question: what exactly IS happening now?

Looking at the current situation, there seem to be three possibilities.

The first is that Trump is again using confusion as a tactic. That the contradictory signals, the inflated language, the erratic public messaging, and the strange negotiation noise are all part of a deliberate strategy to keep Iran, the media and the wider world off balance while the U.S. and Israel prepare for a second phase. If that’s the case – all power to them.

The second possibility is that Trump has not been playing chess at all – but is, instead, trying to make the best of a bad position. That would mean that the current ceasefire and negotiations are not the prelude to a stronger second phase, but an exit ramp. A way of claiming victory without actually achieving the central objective of the campaign. If this second scenario is right, Trump will emerge claiming that America has won, that Iran has been contained, that peace has been secured, and that a suite of concessions (that would never have been necessary if there had been no war) has been agreed – all while leaving the regime in place. That will not be a triumph – it will be an embarrassing compromise dressed up as a win.

The third possibility is that neither of those explanations is correct, and that Trump simply doesn’t know what he is doing right now. That the ceasefire has bought time not for a prepared second phase, but for indecision. Personally, I think this is the least likely explanation. Whatever anyone thinks of Trump, Israel is not strategically naive, militarily weak, or prone to improvising its way into chaos for fun. It is one of the most capable military powers on earth, and it is hard to believe that after executing the opening campaign with such discipline, it would allow itself to be drawn into the next stage of this campaign without an agreed plan.

So, for now, the world watches and waits. The talks are real, the ceasefire is real (for now), the economic pressure is real. and the danger to global energy supplies is real. But the final shape of how it all plays out is not yet clear.

But, perhaps most importantly, 90 million Iranians remain trapped under an Islamic regime that has brutalised its own people, terrorised its neighbours, repeatedly threatened the world, and helped turn one of the most important regions on earth into a permanent powder keg. As such, a face-saving arrangement that leaves the current regime intact is simply not acceptable. If the next phase does not bring about the end of the regime of the Mullahs and the chance for the Iranian people to replace a corrupt Islamist dictatorship with something freer, saner and more humane – then all of this effort has will have been for nothing.

(for the record – I think Trump will leave the current regime in place and will attempt to claim this as a victory. But my reasons for this relate to Bible prophecy and that’s a topic for another day).